Cal St. Fullerton

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	131.0
Current RPI:	131
Expected SOS:	211
Current SOS:	211
Current Record:	18-11
Expected Record:	18-11
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	141
Expected OOC SOS:	150

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-11	131.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Fullerton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	USC (34.0)	P12	A	84-42	L	0%
11-15	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	76-57	L	0%
11-23	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	H	57-64	L	0%
11-24	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	68-63	W	100%
11-26	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	70-61	W	100%
12-6	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	66-76	W	100%
12-9	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	91-83	W	100%
12-16	California (216.0)	P12	A	95-89	L	0%
12-22	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	80-88	W	100%
12-30	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	87-78	L	0%
1-3	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	68-65	W	100%
1-6	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	97-101	W	100%
1-11	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	64-67	W	100%
1-13	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	85-70	W	100%
1-17	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	83-64	L	0%
1-20	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	81-73	L	0%
1-25	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	65-70	L	0%
1-27	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	66-69	W	100%
2-3	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	58-63	L	0%
2-8	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	75-59	W	100%
2-10	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	66-68	W	100%
2-17	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	88-70	W	100%
2-21	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	69-65	L	0%
2-24	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	81-71	W	100%
2-28	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	76-102	W	100%
3-3	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	60-68	L	0%
3-8	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	N	76-74	W	100%
3-9	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	N	52-55	W	100%
3-10	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	N	55-71	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Fullerton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Fullerton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Fullerton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	26.68	26.68	64.23	64.23	7.60	7.60
UC Irvine	BW	6.26	6.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	6.24	6.24	74.07	74.07	3.01	3.01
Long Beach St.	BW	6.10	6.10	42.86	42.86	-0.87	-0.87
UC Riverside	BW	4.63	4.63	22.22	22.22	-2.57	-2.57
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.62	4.62	67.86	67.86	1.65	1.65
Hawaii	BW	4.56	4.56	53.85	53.85	0.35	0.35
Cal Poly	BW	4.51	4.51	25.93	25.93	-2.17	-2.17
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.51	4.51	15.38	15.38	-3.12	-3.12
Utah Valley	WAC	3.66	3.66	66.67	66.67	1.22	1.22
Saint Mary's	WCC	2.03	2.03	84.38	84.38	1.40	1.40
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.99	1.99	34.48	34.48	-0.62	-0.62
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.99	1.99	17.24	17.24	-1.30	-1.30
California	P12	1.98	1.98	23.33	23.33	-1.06	-1.06
Portland	WCC	1.89	1.89	25.00	25.00	-0.95	-0.95
USC	P12	1.84	1.84	66.67	66.67	0.61	0.61
Georgia	SEC	1.75	1.75	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Harvard	Ivy	1.75	1.75	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Pepperdine	WCC	0.46	0.46	16.13	16.13	-0.31	-0.31
San Francisco	WCC	0.43	0.43	53.12	53.12	0.03	0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.40	0.40	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.31	0.31	77.42	77.42	0.17	0.17
Oregon St.	P12	0.30	0.30	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.28	0.28	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.26	0.26	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
BYU	WCC	0.25	0.25	70.59	70.59	0.10	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.25	0.25	34.48	34.48	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.25	0.25	83.33	83.33	0.17	0.17
Idaho St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.23	0.23	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Fresno St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.20	0.20	88.24	88.24	0.15	0.15
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Idaho	BSky	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.19	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
UCLA	P12	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	3.33	3.33	-0.11	-0.11
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01